In the field of the conferences: Modèles de la rationalité, PARIS reasoning organises three talks on the New Paradigm of reasoning.
– 11H-12h30 Jing Shao (PARIS, CHArt, EPHE) & Jean Baratgin (PARIS, CHArt, Université Paris 8 & EPHE)
Title: Une étude sur le conditionnel suffisant et le conditionnel nécessaire en chinois
Abstract: Nous présentons une étude sur le conditionnel suffisant et le conditionnel nécessaire avec les sujets chinois. L’approche de cohérence de Finetti est utilisée dans notre recherche. Nous étudions le raisonnement conditionnel sous l’incertitude dans le cadre du nouveau paradigme. Nous examinons le taux des réponses cohérentes en fonction de la probabilité de conditionnel et celle de la seconde prémisse, dans le cas du conditionnel suffisant et celui du conditionnel nécessaire.
– 14h-15h30 Guy Politzer (Institut Jean Nicod, ENS & PARIS, CHArt, EPHE),.
Title: Conditional reasoning and de Finetti’s probability theory.
Abstract: The “new paradigm” in the psychology of reasoning assumes that individuals reason from premises that are often uncertain. I will first present experimental data showing that among various tri-valued logics, de Finetti’s logic offers the best description of people’s understanding of natural language connectives, including the conditional. Then, I will show how the theoretical framework of de Finetti’s “logic of the probable” (together with the notion of conditional event) enlightens the interplay between semantic and pragmatic processes at work in the interpretation of conditionals and conditional reasoning. To do so, I will present an analogical (physical) implementation of the logic of the probable which allows the representation, and yields the probabilistic solution, of the basic conditional reasoning arguments studied by psychologists, as well as that of other inference schemas considered as benchmark arguments in philosophical logic.
– 15h 30 -16h 30 Nicole Cruz (Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK & PARIS, CHArt, EPHE, France)
Title: Measuring coherence in reasoning under uncertainty
Abstract: The probabilistic approach to the psychology of reasoning assumes that when people reason both in everyday contexts and in science, they usually part from premises of which they are uncertain. To study reasoning from uncertain premises, it is necessary to have criteria for the correctness of an inference that also take account of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach provides such criteria by generalising binary logic, extending the binary concept of consistency to that of coherence. This talk will present a series of experiments that measure the coherence of people’s uncertain inferences, using slightly different methodologies. And it will outline the usefulness of measuring coherence not only to assess its descriptive adequacy as criterion of inference correctness, but also to investigate further people’s interpretation of conditional statements.
Bâtiment le France ; 90 Avenue de France, 75013 Paris
(Métro : Quai de la Gare)
